A Commentary by Daryl Ching
Since President Donald Trump was elected, Canadian businesses selling into the United States have faced a period of unprecedented trade uncertainty. Rapid policy shifts, tariff announcements, and sudden reversals have made forecasting and long-term planning increasingly difficult. Even profitable companies have found themselves hesitating to invest, hire, or expand without clarity on future market access.
Against that backdrop, Canada’s newly secured trade agreement with China represents something rare in today’s business climate: an early, tangible win for Prime Minister Mark Carney, and a meaningful first step toward diversifying Canada’s economic future.
For decades, Canada’s trade strategy has been shaped by proximity and convenience. The United States accounts for roughly three quarters of Canada’s exports. That concentration has delivered scale and stability, but it has also left Canadian businesses exposed to policy shifts, tariffs, and political uncertainty largely beyond their control.
Carney’s government appears intent on changing that equation.
The new trade framework does not attempt to reset the Canada China relationship overnight. Instead, it focuses on lowering specific barriers that have historically made China inaccessible to most Canadian small and mid sized businesses. Faster customs clearance for certain goods, clearer product standards, improved trademark and intellectual property protections, and more predictable dispute resolution mechanisms may sound technical, but for entrepreneurs they are decisive.
Large multinationals have always had the scale to navigate regulatory complexity. Small businesses do not. When goods sit in port for weeks, cash flow suffers. When brand protections are unclear, years of value creation can disappear overnight. When rules change without warning, expansion turns into a gamble.
That vulnerability is not theoretical. I work with many Canadian small businesses that sell primarily into the United States and have been grappling with tariffs and trade uncertainty since President Donald Trump was elected. For some, the pressure has been severe enough that they have seriously considered shutting down altogether; not because demand disappeared, but because access to their main market became too unpredictable.
Against that reality, opening a credible path into a new major market is not just an abstract policy win; it is a potential lifeline. This matters because Canada’s economy is built on small and mid sized enterprises. SMEs employ nearly two thirds of the private sector workforce. If even a modest share of export capable businesses can grow beyond North America, the economic impact compounds quickly.
China matters because of scale and fit. It is the world’s second largest economy, with a large and growing middle class and sustained demand for high quality food, wellness products, technology, and professional service; areas where Canadian businesses already compete effectively. For many exporters, China is not a substitute for the United States, but a complementary market that values safety standards, brand credibility, and reliability.
The benefits are likely to be most immediate for industries where Canada already has credibility and differentiation. Food and beverage producers, particularly those focused on safety, traceability, and premium branding, stand to gain from clearer standards and faster customs clearance. Health, wellness, and consumer product companies benefit from stronger intellectual property protection, which safeguards brand value and pricing power. Service based businesses, including engineering firms, agtech software providers, clean technology consultants, and education and training companies, may also find new opportunities as China continues to invest in infrastructure, sustainability, and technology adoption. These are sectors where Canadian firms compete on quality and expertise, not on being the lowest cost producer.
The point is not to replace the United States as Canada’s primary trading partner. It is to reduce the vulnerability that comes from having too many eggs in one basket. Recent years have shown how quickly access, tariffs, and rules can become political tools.
China remains a complex and challenging market, and caution is warranted. Not every business should pursue it, and those that do must prepare carefully. But, the agreement moves China from an impossible market to a plausible one.
For a government still early in its mandate, that is a meaningful achievement. The success of this deal will not be measured in ribbon cuttings or photo ops. It will be measured quietly, as Canadian businesses ship a little more product, sign one more contract, and rely a little less on a single market.
In an uncertain world, that kind of diversification is not just good economics. It is good leadership.
Carney Scores Early Trade Win, as Canada Takes First Steps Beyond U.S. Dependence
Managing Partner at Vistance Accounting, as seen on BNN Bloomberg, Globe and Mail and Financial Post
A Commentary by Daryl Ching
Since President Donald Trump was elected, Canadian businesses selling into the United States have faced a period of unprecedented trade uncertainty. Rapid policy shifts, tariff announcements, and sudden reversals have made forecasting and long-term planning increasingly difficult. Even profitable companies have found themselves hesitating to invest, hire, or expand without clarity on future market access.
Against that backdrop, Canada’s newly secured trade agreement with China represents something rare in today’s business climate: an early, tangible win for Prime Minister Mark Carney, and a meaningful first step toward diversifying Canada’s economic future.
For decades, Canada’s trade strategy has been shaped by proximity and convenience. The United States accounts for roughly three quarters of Canada’s exports. That concentration has delivered scale and stability, but it has also left Canadian businesses exposed to policy shifts, tariffs, and political uncertainty largely beyond their control.
Carney’s government appears intent on changing that equation.
The new trade framework does not attempt to reset the Canada China relationship overnight. Instead, it focuses on lowering specific barriers that have historically made China inaccessible to most Canadian small and mid sized businesses. Faster customs clearance for certain goods, clearer product standards, improved trademark and intellectual property protections, and more predictable dispute resolution mechanisms may sound technical, but for entrepreneurs they are decisive.
Large multinationals have always had the scale to navigate regulatory complexity. Small businesses do not. When goods sit in port for weeks, cash flow suffers. When brand protections are unclear, years of value creation can disappear overnight. When rules change without warning, expansion turns into a gamble.
That vulnerability is not theoretical. I work with many Canadian small businesses that sell primarily into the United States and have been grappling with tariffs and trade uncertainty since President Donald Trump was elected. For some, the pressure has been severe enough that they have seriously considered shutting down altogether; not because demand disappeared, but because access to their main market became too unpredictable.
Against that reality, opening a credible path into a new major market is not just an abstract policy win; it is a potential lifeline. This matters because Canada’s economy is built on small and mid sized enterprises. SMEs employ nearly two thirds of the private sector workforce. If even a modest share of export capable businesses can grow beyond North America, the economic impact compounds quickly.
China matters because of scale and fit. It is the world’s second largest economy, with a large and growing middle class and sustained demand for high quality food, wellness products, technology, and professional service; areas where Canadian businesses already compete effectively. For many exporters, China is not a substitute for the United States, but a complementary market that values safety standards, brand credibility, and reliability.
The benefits are likely to be most immediate for industries where Canada already has credibility and differentiation. Food and beverage producers, particularly those focused on safety, traceability, and premium branding, stand to gain from clearer standards and faster customs clearance. Health, wellness, and consumer product companies benefit from stronger intellectual property protection, which safeguards brand value and pricing power. Service based businesses, including engineering firms, agtech software providers, clean technology consultants, and education and training companies, may also find new opportunities as China continues to invest in infrastructure, sustainability, and technology adoption. These are sectors where Canadian firms compete on quality and expertise, not on being the lowest cost producer.
The point is not to replace the United States as Canada’s primary trading partner. It is to reduce the vulnerability that comes from having too many eggs in one basket. Recent years have shown how quickly access, tariffs, and rules can become political tools.
China remains a complex and challenging market, and caution is warranted. Not every business should pursue it, and those that do must prepare carefully. But, the agreement moves China from an impossible market to a plausible one.
For a government still early in its mandate, that is a meaningful achievement. The success of this deal will not be measured in ribbon cuttings or photo ops. It will be measured quietly, as Canadian businesses ship a little more product, sign one more contract, and rely a little less on a single market.
In an uncertain world, that kind of diversification is not just good economics. It is good leadership.
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